The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems

Michael T. Burrows*, David S. Schoeman, Lauren B. Buckley, Pippa Moore, Elvira S. Poloczanska, Keith M. Brander, Chris Brown, John F. Bruno, Carlos Duarte, Benjamin S. Halpern, Johnna Holding, Carrie V. Kappel, Wolfgang Kiessling, Mary I. O'Connor, John M. Pandolfi, Camille Parmesan, Franklin B. Schwing, William J. Sydeman, Anthony J. Richardson

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

743 Scopus citations

Abstract

Climate change challenges organisms to adapt or move to track changes in environments in space and time. We used two measures of thermal shifts from analyses of global temperatures over the past 50 years to describe the pace of climate change that species should track: the velocity of climate change (geographic shifts of isotherms over time) and the shift in seasonal timing of temperatures. Both measures are higher in the ocean than on land at some latitudes, despite slower ocean warming. These indices give a complex mosaic of predicted range shifts and phenology changes that deviate from simple poleward migration and earlier springs or later falls. They also emphasize potential conservation concerns, because areas of high marine biodiversity often have greater velocities of climate change and seasonal shifts.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)652-655
Number of pages4
JournalScience
Volume334
Issue number6056
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 4 2011

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

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