The global distribution of lymphatic filariasis, 2000–18: a geospatial analysis

Aniruddha Deshpande, Molly K. Miller-Petrie, Kimberly B. Johnson, A. Abdoli, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji O. Adetokunboh, S. Adinarayanan, E. Ahmadpour, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu, T. M. Alanezi, C. Alinia, Vahid Alipour, Arianna Maever L. Amit, N. H. Anber, R. Ancuceanu, Z. Andualem, F. Ansari, Carl Abelardo T. AntonioD. Anvari, S. Appiah, Jalal Arabloo, B. F. Arnold, Marcel Ausloos, Martin Amogre Ayanore, A. Badirzadeh, A. A. Baig, Maciej Banach, A. G. Baraki, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Mohsen Bayati, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Zulfiqar A. Bhutta, Ali Bijani, M. J. Bockarie, D. Bisanzio, Raaj Kishore Biswas, Somayeh Bohlouli, Jorge Cano, Felix Carvalho, Vijay Kumar Chattu, C. Chavshin, Natalie Maria Cormier, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, C. A. Schmidt, K. T. Kwong, G. Damiani, Rakhi Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Ahmad Daryani, Aditya Prasad Dash, Kebede Deribe, B. Dessu, Meghnath Dhimal, M. Dianatinasab, Daniel Diaz, Hoa Thi Do, L. Earl, Maha El Tantawi, A. Faraj, N. Fattahi, Eduarda Fernandes, Florian Fischer, Nataliya A. Foigt, Masoud Foroutan, Yuming Guo, G. B. Hailu, Ahmed I. Hasaballah, H. Hassankhani, H. Hassankhani, Claudiu Herteliu, Hagos Degefa de Hidru, J. Hon, M. K. Hole, Naznin Hossain, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mowafa Househ, Ayesha Humayun, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Milena D. Ilic, Usman Iqbal, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Ravi Prakash Jha, John S. Ji, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Ali Kabir, L. R. Kalankesh, R. Kalhor, B. Karami Matin, André Karch, S. Karimi, Amir Kasaeian, A. Kazemi Karyani, Gbenga A. Kayode, A. G. Kelbore, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Rovshan Khalilov, Junaid Khan, Khaled Khatab, Mona M. Khater, M. Khodayari, Yun Jin Kim, J. D. King, D. K. Kinyoki, N. Kianipour, G. Anil Kumar, Dian Kusuma, Carlo La Vecchia, Van Charles Lansingh, Paul H. Lee, Kate E. LeGrand, Aubrey J. Levine, Shanshan Li, S. Maleki, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, B. B. Massenburg, Benjamin K. Mayala, W. B. Meitei, Walter Mendoza, D. T. Mengistu, Seid Tiku Mereta, Tomislav Mestrovic, K. M. Mihretie, A. Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Masoud Moradi, R. Moradzadeh, Paula Moraga, S. D. Morrison, Jonathan F. Mosser, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Sandra B. Munro, D. Mupfasoni, Saravanan Muthupandian, U. J. mwingira, Mehdi Naderi, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Gurudatta Naik, Ionut Negoi, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, T. H. Nguyen, Andrew T. Olagunju, A. Omar Bali, Osayomwanbo Osarenotor, Frank B. Osei, D. Pasupula, David M. Pigott, S. Shirude, E. Hill, K. M. Donkers, Meghdad Pirsaheb, H. Pourjafar, Salman Rawaf, D. L. Rawaf, R. Rawassizadeh, M. A. Reta, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, A. Rostami, S. Sabesan, Ehsan Sadeghi, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Abdallah M. Samy, Benn Sartorius, Lauren E. Schaeffer, Masood Ali Shaikh, Kiomars Sharafi, S. Soltani, H. Sharifi, K. Shibuya, Jae Il Shin, A. Soheili, A. Spotin, W. A. Stolk, Berhe Etsay Tesfay, Roman Topor-Madry, Bach Xuan Tran, Khanh Bao Tran, Irfan Ullah, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Y. Vasseghian, Francesco S. Violante, N. V.S. Vinkeles Melchers, Tomohide Yamada, S. Yaya, V. Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, L. Zaki, Sojib Bin Zaman, M. Zamanian, A. Zangeneh, Yunquan Zhang, Z. Zhang, Arash Ziapour, Simon I. Hay, Robert C. Reiner

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

14 Scopus citations

Abstract

Background: Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease that can cause permanent disability through disruption of the lymphatic system. This disease is caused by parasitic filarial worms that are transmitted by mosquitos. Mass drug administration (MDA) of antihelmintics is recommended by WHO to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem. This study aims to produce the first geospatial estimates of the global prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection over time, to quantify progress towards elimination, and to identify geographical variation in distribution of infection. Methods: A global dataset of georeferenced surveyed locations was used to model annual 2000–18 lymphatic filariasis prevalence for 73 current or previously endemic countries. We applied Bayesian model-based geostatistics and time series methods to generate spatially continuous estimates of global all-age 2000–18 prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection mapped at a resolution of 5 km2 and aggregated to estimate total number of individuals infected. Findings: We used 14 927 datapoints to fit the geospatial models. An estimated 199 million total individuals (95% uncertainty interval 174–234 million) worldwide were infected with lymphatic filariasis in 2000, with totals for WHO regions ranging from 3·1 million (1·6–5·7 million) in the region of the Americas to 107 million (91–134 million) in the South-East Asia region. By 2018, an estimated 51 million individuals (43–63 million) were infected. Broad declines in prevalence are observed globally, but focal areas in Africa and southeast Asia remain less likely to have attained infection prevalence thresholds proposed to achieve local elimination. Interpretation: Although the prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection has declined since 2000, MDA is still necessary across large populations in Africa and Asia. Our mapped estimates can be used to identify areas where the probability of meeting infection thresholds is low, and when coupled with large uncertainty in the predictions, indicate additional data collection or intervention might be warranted before MDA programmes cease. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)e1186-e1194
Number of pages1
JournalThe Lancet Global Health
Volume8
Issue number9
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 1 2020
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine(all)

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