Modeling spatio-temporal wildfire ignition point patterns

Amanda S. Hering, Cynthia L. Bell, Marc Genton*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

43 Scopus citations

Abstract

We analyze and model the structure of spatio-temporal wildfire ignitions in the St. Johns River Water Management District in northeastern Florida. Previous studies, based on the K-function and an assumption of homogeneity, have shown that wildfire events occur in clusters. We revisit this analysis based on an inhomogeneous K-function and argue that clustering is less important than initially thought. We also use K-cross functions to study multitype point patterns, both under homogeneity and inhomogeneity assumptions, and reach similar conclusions as above regarding the amount of clustering. Of particular interest is our finding that prescribed burns seem not to reduce significantly the occurrence of wildfires in the current or subsequent year over this large geographical region. Finally, we describe various point pattern models for the location of wildfires and investigate their adequacy by means of recent residual diagnostics.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)225-250
Number of pages26
JournalEnvironmental and Ecological Statistics
Volume16
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2009

Keywords

  • Clustering
  • Diagnostics
  • Inhomogeneous
  • K-function
  • Marked
  • Multitype
  • Point process
  • Residuals

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty

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