Mixed deterministic statistical modelling of regional ozone air pollution

Stoitchko Kalenderski, Douw G. Steyn

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

We develop a physically motivated statistical model for regional ozone air pollution by separating the ground-level pollutant concentration field into three components, namely: transport, local production and large-scale mean trend mostly dominated by emission rates. The model is novel in the field of environmental spatial statistics in that it is a combined deterministic-statistical model, which gives a new perspective to the modelling of air pollution. The model is presented in a Bayesian hierarchical formalism, and explicitly accounts for advection of pollutants, using the advection equation. We apply the model to a specific case of regional ozone pollution-the Lower Fraser valley of British Columbia, Canada. As a predictive tool, we demonstrate that the model vastly outperforms existing, simpler modelling approaches. Our study highlights the importance of simultaneously considering different aspects of an air pollution problem as well as taking into account the physical bases that govern the processes of interest. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd..
Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)572-586
Number of pages15
JournalEnvironmetrics
Volume22
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 17 2011

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecological Modeling
  • Statistics and Probability

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