Group elicitations yield more consistent, yet more uncertain experts in understanding risks to ecosystem services in New Zealand bays

Gerald G. Singh, Jim Sinner, Joanne Ellis, Milind Kandlikar, Benjamin S. Halpern, Terre Satterfield, Kai Chan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

9 Scopus citations

Abstract

The elicitation of expert judgment is an important tool for assessment of risks and impacts in environmental management contexts, and especially important as decision-makers face novel challenges where prior empirical research is lacking or insufficient. Evidence-driven elicitation approaches typically involve techniques to derive more accurate probability distributions under fairly specific contexts. Experts are, however, prone to overconfidence in their judgements. Group elicitations with diverse experts can reduce expert overconfidence by allowing cross-examination and reassessment of prior judgements, but groups are also prone to uncritical
Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)e0182233
JournalPLOS ONE
Volume12
Issue number8
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 2 2017

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