Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts

A. Robock*, L. Oman, G. L. Stenchikov, O. B. Toon, C. Bardeen, R. P. Turco

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

75 Scopus citations

Abstract

We use a modern climate model and new estimates of smoke generated by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the response of the climate system to a regional nuclear war between emerging third world nuclear powers using 100 Hiroshima-size bombs (less than 0.03% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal) on cities in the subtropics. We find significant cooling and reductions of precipitation lasting years, which would impact the global food supply. The climate changes are large and long-lasting because the fuel loadings in modern cities are quite high and the subtropical solar insolation heats the resulting smoke cloud and lofts it into the high stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow. While the climate changes are less dramatic than found in previous "nuclear winter" simulations of a massive nuclear exchange between the superpowers, because less smoke is emitted, the changes are more long-lasting because the older models did not adequately represent the stratospheric plume rise.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2003-2012
Number of pages10
JournalAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Volume7
Issue number8
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2007

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

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