Efficient management of patient demands in emergency departments (EDs) has recently received increasing attention by most healthcare administrations. Forecasting ED demands greatly helps ED's managers to make suitable decisions by optimally allocating the available limited resources to efficiently handle patient attendances. Furthermore, it permits pre-emptive action(s) to mitigate and/or prevent overcrowding situations and to enhance the quality of care. In this work, we present a statistical approach based on a vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model for a short term forecasting of daily attendances at an ED. The VARMA model has been validated using an experimental data from the paediatric emergency department (PED) at Lille regional hospital centre, France. The results obtained indicate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in forecasting patient demands.
|Original language||English (US)|
|Title of host publication||2017 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence (SSCI)|
|Publisher||Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)|
|Number of pages||6|
|State||Published - Feb 7 2018|